Trump Tariff Urgency Drove September’s Shipment Surge
U.S. seaborne imports climbed 7% on a year earlier in September, following a rise of just 1% in August. The race to beat duties on $200 billion of Chinese exports was the main driver with shipments from China up 9%. The latter included a 15% jump in shipments of refrigerators and 24% in pumping systems which became subject to 25% tariffs from September 24.

Outside household appliances, demand for consumer goods remains robust with global imports of apparel up 9%. Imports of toys climbed 3% after a 2% drop in the prior three months as retailers jockey for position in the post-Toys’R’Us holiday season. Industrial supply chain imports also remain robust with autos up 8% and capital goods more broadly rising by a more modest 3%.

With consumer confidence at 18 year highs and industrial optimism remaining firmly positive continued growth seems likely, though October will show whether the Trump administration’s China duties will prove effective in choking off imports.